Super Bowl XLV Picks - Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs Green Bay Packers

Saturday, February 05, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Super Bowl XLV Picks - Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs Green Bay Packers

When & Where:
Sunday, February 6th, 6:30 PM ET. Cowboys Stadium, Arlington Texas.

Weather:
This game is being played in a dome.

Analysis:
The last meeting between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers took place on December 20th, 2009, at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, when Ben Roethlisberger threw a 19-yard pass to Mike Wallace for a score on the final play of a 37-36 victory for the Steelers.

The teams combined to score 35 points in a wild fourth quarter, and the numbers from this game are truly staggering: the offenses combined for 973 yards (436 for Green Bay, 537 for Pittsburgh), 46 first downs, and most of those came on the arm of the quarterbacks.

Roethlisberger threw for 503 yards and three touchdowns, while his counterpart Aaron Rodgers tossed the ball around for 383 yards and three scores. There were three WR with 100 yards or more in receiving yards, and neither team committed a turnover. It was a very impressive offensive performance on both sides.

One must think that both defenses will be out to prove that the 37-36 game was a fluke, and that respective DC’s Dom Capers and Dick LeBeau will cook up some things that neither offense has seen before.

For as much that has been made about the quarterbacks, the wide receivers, and the defense, there could be another crucial area that has a big impact on Super Bowl XLV when the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers take to the field at Cowboys Stadium this Sunday. Special teams are always a huge factor in any football game, and a quick look (see below) at past Super Bowl games would re-enforce that frame of thinking.

Offensive Matchups:

The offense was on shaky ground for the first four games of the season, when Ben Roethlisberger was suspended, as the Steelers went to Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch. Then, Dixon suffered a knee injury, the second of his career after one in college ended his senior year, but the Steelers managed to go 3-1.

Roethlisberger came back to finish fifth in the league in passer rating with 17 touchdowns and five picks, but Roethlisberger’s strength is his ability to extend and make a play, which was there for all to see in the win over the Jets, and there may not be a better big-game pivot than “Big Ben”.

RB Rashard Mendenhall ran for 1,273 yards, but he averaged 3.9 yards and he had to grind it out for most of the season. Roethlisberger has a healthy assortment of weapons to throw to, such as Mike Wallace, who became a full-fledged star this season, along with veterans Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle-El along with big playmaker Antonio Brown, who emerged late in the season.

Aaron Rodgers was third in the regular season in passer rating, tied for sixth in touchdowns with 28 while getting picked off just 11 times, and he was seventh in yards. He has raised his game in the playoffs despite struggling against the Bears, and Rodgers is the highest-rated passer in the postseason. The Packers were ninth in the league offensively, but they were only 24th on the ground after RB Ryan Grant broke his ankle in the season opener. Now, the running game seems to be back behind rookie James Starks, a sixth-round choice who leads the NFL in postseason yards. Rodgers lost tight end Jermichael Finley in Week 5 due to a knee injury, but he still has a lot of weapons in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and James Jones.

The Achilles Heel is an offensive line that allowed 38 sacks in the regular season, and Rodgers has been sacked five times in the playoffs. The Packers have to be worried about Rodgers, who suffered two concussions this season, and he’s not afraid to run, which doesn’t help matters. Left tackle Chad Clifton has been banged up all season, and when he isn’t, rookie Bryan Bulaga switches sides. The Packers struggled to control Chicago’s Julius Peppers, and now they’ll face Pittsburgh’s monster James Harrison.

 

Quarterback:

Ben Roethlisberger isn’t mentioned with guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and even his Green Bay Packers counterpart, but he’s gunning for his third Super Bowl ring in his seven-year career. You can say that he has been lifted by great defenses, but there may not be a better big-game quarterback in the league right now than Roethlisberger, and it’s his ability to extend plays that makes him a problem.

Indeed, it sometimes gets him into trouble, and he takes unnecessary sacks, but more often than not, Roethlisberger will roll out and make a play as he did against the New York Jets in the AFC title game, when he found Antonio Brown on a broken play that gave his offense a first down thus allowing them to run the clock out.

Aaron Rodgers has better numbers that Roethlisberger, but this year he showed the swagger of a guy who knows he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He can also extend plays, although the Packers would rather he didn’t due to his concussion problems (he had two this season).

Rodgers has been the best quarterback in these playoffs in leading the Packers to three tough wins in very hostile places, and he has nerves of steel. The only place where he comes up substantially short of Roethlisberger is the big-game experience, as the Super Bowl is an entirely different ball of wax compared to playoff games. We’ll really see how Rodgers’ nerves hold up. Don’t worry about the sore shoulder being reported; by game time, Rodgers should be very close to 100%.

Running Backs:

Rashard Mendenhall has just four 100-yard games this year, and the Steelers have won all four, including in the AFC title game against the Jets. He’s not really a big-play back, averaging 3.9 yards per carry with a long of 50 yards this season, but Mendenhall is a guy who can wear down a defense with his bruising style, but don’t sleep because he’s deceptively quick. Mewelde Moore has jumped over Isaac Redman, probably because of his experience, but Roethlisberger would likely get the call over either one of them if the Steelers needed a short yardage first down and Mendenhall couldn’t go. The running game has been hurt by injuries to the offensive line, but you definitely can’t count out the Steelers on the ground.

The Packers suffer a massive blow to their running game when Ryan Grant went down in the first game of the season, and Brandon Jackson stepped up to take the reins, but he’s not really explosive with just two runs of 20 yards or more. But he struggled down the stretch and the Packers went to James Starks, a sixth-round rookie who is now leading the NFL in postseason rushing yards. The running game basically slows down the blitz so the passing game can operate in Green Bay, and that was proven in Atlanta, where the Falcons tried to focus on Starks and got picked apart by Rodgers. Still, the jury is still out on Starks.

Wide Receivers:

Pittsburgh has better receivers than you think they have, and in Mike Wallace, they may have the pre-eminent deep threat in the game. Wallace, along with the aforementioned Brown, can stretch the field and go deep for Roethlisberger, which opens up the underneath for tight end Heath Miller and Hines Ward, who remains Roethlisberger’s favorite target in the slot in the red zone even though Wallace leads the team in first downs. Emmanuel Sanders has had some of his passes go to Brown, but he is a dangerous No.4 receiver for the Steelers, and Antwaan Randle-El is still a threat as well.

The Green Bay receivers are no slouches either, led by Greg Jennings, who may be the quietest No.1 receiver in the league and he has three 100-yard games in his last five starts, including the last two games. Donald Driver would have to be be compared to Ward, the wily old veteran who is a crisp route-runner and has sure hands on third down. James Jones and Jordy Nelson fill out the receiving core, and you wonder just how good the Packers would be with Jermichael Finley, the tight end with two 100-yard games in the first four of the season before going down with a knee injury. Andrew Quarless has been decent, but he’s no Finley. Still, a slight edge goes to the Packers.

Offensive Line:

The Steelers have been dealing with injuries up front all season, none worse than center Maurkice Pouncey who will sit out the game of a lifetime due to an ankle injury. Pouncey, the rookie who was selected to the Pro Bowl, is the lynchpin and the one that holes the line together for the Steelers. Flozell Adams hasn’t been great this season opposite left tackle Jonathan Scott, who started nine of 16 games in the regular season. Guard Ramon Foster has bounced in and out of the lineup, while Chris Kemoteau is probably their most consistent lineman outside of Pouncey. The Steelers have been dealing with shuffling the line all year, but losing Pouncey is a huge blow to their Super Bowl betting chances.

The Packers have also been hurt by injuries, starting with left tackle Chad Clifton, who has been banged up but he’s started every game for Green Bay. On the other side, rookie Bryan Bulaga has taken over for T.J. Lang, who can play all across the line. Daryn Colledge and Josh Sitton have both started every game for the Packers, but they haven’t been at 100%. The same goes for center Scott Wells, but the Packers are going to get the edge here because they seem the healthier of the two teams right now, although it wouldn’t be hard considering Pittsburgh’s troubles up front. However, Roethlisberger’s ability to scramble negates that advantage just a bit.

Defensive Matchups:

If there is one thing that we all know about the Steelers, it’s that they’re going to play defense. They’re getting a bit long in the tooth, but the Steelers were still second in the regular season in total defense, by far the best defense in the league against the run by allowing 62.8 yards (a franchise record), and they led the NFL in sacks.

If you can find a better linebacking corps than James Harrison, James Farrior, Lamarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons, be sure to let me know. The front three managed to keep up their high standards despite the loss of end Aaron Smith to a triceps injury. But as good as the Pittsburgh defense is, it gets taken to a different level when safety Troy Polamalu is healthy and in the lineup.

Even when he isn’t healthy, which he hasn’t been for the last six weeks, a Polamalu at 85% is better than everyone outside of Baltimore’s Ed Reed. Polamalu allows the Steelers to disguise blitzes and confuse the opposing quarterback because you never know where he’s going to be.

It’s tough to find a negative side when it comes to the Steelers’ defense, and the only thing that seems to stop them is injuries, but they seem to be able to overcome that as well. Ziggy Hood stepped up for Smith, while Ryan Mundy has filled in with Polamalu. The key has been the linebackers staying healthy all season.

We have seen the Packers catch on to Dom Capers’ scheme from the beginning of the year after having troubles with the switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Linebacker Clay Matthews had 13.5 sacks and was moved around all over the place, and he has another 3.5 sacks in the playoffs.

A.J. Hawk had arguably his best season as a pro alongside Matthews, and second-year B.J. Raji was a beast long before he rumbled for an 18-yard interception return for a score against the Bears. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson had another solid year, and on the other side, Tramon Williams has blossomed into a Pro Bowl cornerback. The Packers’ pass rush allows them to play a lot of man coverage, and their secondary can handle it.

The Packers have also improved their rush defense in the playoffs, going from allowing 114.9 yards in the regular season down to 69.7 yards against three teams that could run the ball pretty well. It’s likely they’ll need another big game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are powered by Rashard Mendenhall.

Defensive Line:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a defensive line that does a fantastic job of tying up offensive linemen, which in turn allows their linebackers to swarm and make plays. That’s why the Steelers are, far and away, the best team in the league against the run, Ziggy Hood, Brett Keisel and Casey Hampton are a load for any offensive line, and the fact that didn’t even miss a Pro Bowl-caliber player like Aaron Smith, who has been out since Week 8 with a triceps injury. Chris Hoke is an excellent backup for Hampton at nose tackle.

B.J. Raji has been a force for the Green Bay Packers in the middle of the offensive line, and his interception return against the Chicago Bears may have been the defensive play of the postseason so far. Raji demands a double team wherever he lines up, and he also frees up space for Ryan Pickett and Cullen Jenkins, who has returned from injury in the playoffs. C.J. Wilson is a decent backup on the end, but while they’re deeper than the Steelers up front, they’re not as talented outside of Raji.

Linebackers:

As I’ve said before, the Steelers have the best linebacking corps in the league. James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley are bringing the heat from the outside, but they’re also extremely good against the run. Harrison was third on the team during the regular season in tackles behind Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior, who is still a tackling machine at 36 years old.

But the great thing about the Steelers is that, if you had to, you could switch all four linebackers around and likely get the same results or close to it. This group is highly skilled, with lots of experience, and they’re still getting better as Timmons and Woodley are 24 and 26, respectively. The one knock is that they’re not that deep at linebacker, with Larry Foote as the first backup, but that’s not concern.

In Clay Matthews, Green Bay has a player who can not only rush you into oblivion, but also is a great defender against the run, and you always have to account for Matthews, who gets moved around in the Packers’ 3-4 scheme. A.J. Hawk is on the early injury report with a knee injury, but he’ll likely be held out of some practices leading up to the Super Bowl so he will be able to suit up in Dallas.

The Packers will need him in the lineup, as the other inside linebacker, Desmond Bishop is battling an ailing ankle, while on the outside, it doesn’t appear that Frank Zombo will return to the lineup after missing the last six games. His replacement, Eric Walden, had to leave the NFC championship game with an ankle injury, and Rob Francois had to move from the inside to fill in. This group isn’t as good as the Steelers when they’re fully healthy, but the injuries aren’t helping at all.

Secondary:

Pittsburgh has been bitten by the injury bug at the back, as Bryant McFadden has been bumped from his starting cornerback position because of a pulled abdominal. He’ll play the nickel back as he did in the AFC title game, and William Gay will get another start opposite Ike Taylor. Safety Troy Polamalu probably didn’t do a lot in practice leading up to the Super Bowl because of his Achilles, but Polamalu has been on this schedule for the last six weeks. Ryan Clark lines up at the other safety position, and he allows Polamalu the freedom to move up to the line as he watches the deep ball.

The Packers have got a massive contribution from Sam Shields at corner, as he had a couple of picks and a forced fumble against the Bears and along with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, Green Bay is loaded at cornerback.

Woodson is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and he’s an All-Pro once again, along with safety Nick Collins, and Williams was named to the Pro Bowl. Charlie Peprah doesn’t get the publicity of his teammates, but he’s a capable safety who can defend the run and the pass.

Special Teams:

Whether it’s a game-winning field goal from Adam Vinatieri, or an onside kick by the New Orleans Saints, special teams have had just as profound an effect on the outcome of games as offense or defense. With that said, here is a quick look at the special teams for both the Steelers and Packers, with insight in to which team has the edge.

Return Game

While the Steelers hold the slight edge in the kick return department with an average 23.5 yards per attempt, Green Bay easily had the better punt return units averaging 7.9 per return compared to Pittsburgh’s league-worst 6.1 mark. Antonio Brown scored the Steelers’ lone return touchdown back in week two, and did not show much flash all year, although he did do a good job of protecting the ball. The Packers’ return tandem of cornerback Tramon Williams and rookie running back James Starks wasn’t much more explosive without a single score however, and that gives a slight edge to Pittsburgh.

Kickers

Steelers’ kicker Shaun Suisham has been consistent, but not spectacular hitting 16 of his 18 field goal attempts including the playoffs after replacing Jeff Reed in week 11. Both of his misses have come from beyond 40 yards, but he should be much more comfortable playing in a dome where he doesn’t have to deal with the tough winds of Heinz Field.

Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby has gone 24-for-31 including the postseason, with his only miss in the playoffs coming from 50 yards out. His career percentage is actually lower than Suisham’s, who gets the edge based on that he didn’t miss from within 40, something the Crosby did twice this year.

Punters

This is the one area where Green Bay has the distinct advantage, as Pittsburgh has struggled in this department since losing one of the best punters in the game in Daniel Sepulveda due to injury. Jeremy Kapinos took over for the Steelers, but his 32.3 average net is one of the worst in the league, which makes Tim Masthay look even better despite his limitations. The rookie Masthay has averaged 37.6 yards per punt, which ranks in the middle of the pack.

Overall

Based on special teams alone, the Steelers would have to get the nod, especially considering the consistency of Suisham, which could make all the difference in a game of this magnitude. Neither team has a true gamebreaker in this department, but if the decision was based on special teams alone it would go to Pittsburgh.

Coaching:

It’s incredible that Mike Tomlin continues to get no consideration for Coach of the Year, and while he did inherit a great roster, someone has to manage all that talent and Tomlin has done a masterful job heading to his second Super Bowl in four years, and he is a spectacular 5-1 in the postseason. Tomlin allows offensive coordinator Bruce Arians to deal with the offense, and even though his play-calling has come under fire sometimes, Arians has become more creative with the emergence of WR Mike Wallace.

The defense is in great shape under Tomlin and the great Dick LeBeau, who is out of contract at the end of the season, but doubt he’ll be anywhere else than Pittsburgh next season if the 73-year-old decides to continue coaching. The inventor of the zone blitz is widely regarded as the best defensive mind in the league, and as a back story, he replaced Green Bay counterpart Dom Capers in 1995 after Capers left for Carolina.

Mike McCarthy has surrounded himself with people he trusts, and he kept offensive coordinator Joe Philbin on after taking over the Packers in 2006. Philbin has been with the team since 2003, he’s been in his recent position since 2007 and he’s had a big hand in the development of Rodgers. Still, Mike McCarthy, who was the quarterbacks coach in Green Bay in 1999, has the final say when it comes to play-calling. But McCarthy makes some strange calls sometimes, and it looked like he was playing not to lose against the Bears, instead of trying to win.

On the other hand, you have to think he gives a lot of autonomy to defensive coordinator Dom Capers, who has turned the defense around switching schemes. The players trust him now, and the unit is a well-oiled machine. Capers is known as one of the top defensive minds in the league, and he won the Coach of the Year award in 1996 when he led Carolina to the NFC title game, where they lost to the Packers, ironically enough.

Outlook:

Despite being a No.1 seed, the Steelers had a tough road to travel to get here, and there may not be a team in the league with more mental toughness. Not only have they had to battle injuries, but the Steelers have had to deal with off-field issues such as Santonio Holmes, who they allowed to go to the Jets for virtually nothing, along with Roethlisberger’s problems which you surely have re-heard about over the last couple of weeks. There are 18 Steelers with Super Bowl rings, and each of those players are an inherent part of the team, and that experience should really pay off on February 6th. As if they needed any added motivation, they could be spurred on by the fact that they’re the underdogs in this game.

The Packers are far better than the No.6 seed in which they came into the playoffs, and they won on the road in some pretty hostile environments, including one where the fans are just extra nasty, even to their own (Philadelphia), a place where the opposing starter was almost unbeatable (Atlanta), and at the home of their oldest and most bitter rivals in one of the coldest days of the year (Chicago). They’re a balanced team, and the emergence of Starks and Williams has been great on both sides of the ball. The only thing that counts against them is experience: only three players on the roster have been to the Super Bowl, and one has a ring: fullback John Kuhn, who got a ring while on the Steelers’ practice squad at Super Bowl XL. They have all the talent in the world, but the Super Bowl is a big stage and they could end up stumbling in the bright lights. Not to mention, they have the added pressure of being the favorite in Dallas.

Prediction:

I give the Steelers more credit than the Packers for how they got here. First, having to play one fewer games could be a major factor in terms of physical and mental health. They will also be more rested because they played two at home whereas the Packers played three on the road.

Though the Packers have looked good in each game, one can’t help but feel that they haven’t traveled the hardest path to glory -- Philadelphia had issues, Atlanta never looked dominant all year and the Bears were such a mess at quarterback that it wasn’t even a contest.

Nevertheless, experience – or lack thereof- will play a significant role as none of the six teams which won two Super Bowls within a short time frame has lost on its third go in the magic game. (Steelers 75-79, Raiders 77-84, 49ers 89-95, Redskins 83-92, Cowboys 93-96 and Patriots 02-05). Take Steelers.

Be a player and bet on Pittsburgh (+2.5) vs Green Bay at Bovada Sportsbook

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a.j. hawk - aaron rodgers - aaron smith - adam vinatieri - andrew quarless - antonio brown - antwaan randle-el - b.j. raji - ben roethlisberger - brandon jackson

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